Value Investment Fund Status Week 24 – Maintaining Position

Value Investment Fund

This past week, the Value Investment Fund grew 2.1% matching many of the major indices in the market.

The fund is well ahead of schedule and is on track to surpass 52% return for fiscal year 2021. Driving the unrealized gains are the REITs. This table illustrates how much has accrued since the purchases in late October, early November. Unlike many other investments, there are no key performance indicators to assist investors during interim accounting periods. With REITs, an investor has to wait for the quarterly report to determine performance. Given the sound value of the underlying real estate, there is no concern regarding each position taken by the value investment fund. 

Name                                 Purchase Price    Intrinsic Value    Current Market Price*   Historical Peak Price
Equity Residential                    $52.23                 $64                            $70.69                               $88.37
Essex (Average)                     $216.77                $262                         $282.33                             $331.30
UDR, Inc.                                 $32.95                  $41                          $43.06                                $50.93

All three of the real estate investment trusts’ investments will report their first quarter results in about three weeks. Unless there is a significant setback with collection of rents by all three, the pool’s aggregated value will continue to march towards their historical respective peak market prices which in turn will drive the investment fund’s unrealized gains and the overall return. 

Value Investment Fund – Portfolio Status

Here is the current status of the Value Investment Fund:

REIT Pool                                          # of Shares     Cost Basis     Market Price*         Fair Market Value
    – Equity Residential                            574.459           $30,000             $70.69                      $40,608.51

    – Essex Property Trust (Tranche #1)        48.9644             10,000              282.33                        13,824.12
    – Essex Property Trust (Tranche #2)        43.2994             10,000              282.33                        12,224.72

    – UDR                                               606.9803             20,000               43.06                         26,136.57      
       Sub-Totals                                                                $70,000                                               $92,793.92
Railways Pool
– No Stock Holdings
Banking Pool

     – Bank of New York                        232.9373             10,000                 47.62                       11,092.47
.    – Wells Fargo (Tranche #1)                   292.0560             10,000                 39.50                       11,536.21
.    – Wells Fargo  (Tranche #2)                   558.9715             20,000                 39.50                       22,079.37
.       Sub-Totals                                                                 40,000                                                 44,708.06
Dividend Receivables (Essex & UDR)                                                                                            413.16
Cash on Hand (Gains, Dividends, PUTS)                                                                                     6,298.01
Totals (Starting Cost Basis = $100,000)                    $110,000                                              $144,213.15

*Net of transaction fees of $1.00 per share; thus the amount in the schedule equals the actual market price per share at closing less $1.00.

The recovery for the REITs Pool continues to exceed the projected nine to twelve months rebound forecasted back in November 2020. The current price recovery sell points are:

  • Equity Residential                            $91 (updated from $81 due to no alternative investment options)
  • Essex Property Trust                       $331 (updated from $301 due to switching to prior peak method)
  • UDR                                                  $51

It is possible that all three investments will hit their respective targets by the end of July. If this holds, the annual return will exceed 68%; this is better than a fair return. If it takes until October, the annual return drops to 51%. The results exceed the expected returns for value investing. Timing is explained in detail in Phase Two of the membership program with this site’s value investing program.

If the REITs do hit their respective target sales prices early, there are no available options to purchase alternative investments at this time. The members of the railways pool are all at their respective all-time highs. Furthermore, there are no opportunities in the banking pool to use the proceeds. If so, then the investment fund will use a stop-loss tool to try and eek out marginal dollars while developing a fourth pool of investments. A stop-loss order is a sophisticated directive explained in Phase Three of the membership program. It will be covered if the fund exercises this tool.

One last issue to cover. In Security Analysis written by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, they advocated for more than 40 separate investments in an investor’s portfolio. They state it reduces risk significantly related to opportunity. They are correct. Right now, the Value Investment Fund has 18 separate potential investments. All of them are performing well. This means there are no opportunities to invest (buy low) which will affect the return on investments in the future. In order for this portfolio to have a long-term stability and good returns year after year, the fund must develop two more sets of pools of investments.  This is a lot of work. But it has to get done in order for next year to have a reasonable return on the portfolio.

Overall, the entire portfolio is performing in accordance to plan. The value investment fund follows the primary tenet of buying low and selling high. Management of the fund adheres to four principles of value investing:

  1. Only buy high quality top 2,000 companies;
  2. Reduce risk by establishing intrinsic value and purchasing the stock for less than intrinsic value;
  3. Conduct a financial analysis to determine a reasonable target for market price recovery;
  4. Patience.

Act on Knowledge.

Value Investing Episode 1 – Introduction and Membership Program

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