Value Investment Fund

This site’s value investment fund is composed of three separate industry pools with at least 18 separate potential investments. In 2020, the value investment fund had a 35% return on its core basis. During the second year, it is currently tracking for a return of more than 40%.

Value Investment Fund Status Week 25 – Continued Growth

Value Investment Fund

This past week, the Value Investment Fund grew 2.7% reaching a new all time high at $148,147 off a $100,000 investment 25 weeks ago.

This past week, the banking pool propelled the fund higher with its 5% growth during the week. Wells Fargo and Bank of New York released their financial results from the first quarter. Wells Fargo’s 1st quarter results surpassed even the most optimistic expectations with earnings of $4.7 Billion on $18.1 Billion of revenue (26%). This stock is poised to explode once the Federal Reserve releases its cap on the volume of assets Wells Fargo is allowed to have on its balance sheet. The fund facilitator is adjusting its expected recovery price by $2 to $55 and expects this market price during the first quarter of 2022. 

Value Investment Fund Status Week 24 – Maintaining Position

Value Investment Fund

This past week, the Value Investment Fund grew 2.1% matching many of the major indices in the market.

The fund is well ahead of schedule and is on track to surpass 52% return for fiscal year 2021. Driving the unrealized gains are the REITs. This table illustrates how much has accrued since the purchases in late October, early November. Unlike many other investments, there are no performance indicators to assist investors during interim accounting periods. With REITs, an investor has to wait for the quarterly report to determine performance. Given the sound value of the underlying real estate, there is no concern regarding each position taken by the value investment fund. 

Value Investment Fund – Status on March 31, 2021

Value Investment Fund

The Club’s Value Investment Fund grew dramatically during March 2021. The Fund grew 10.1% driven by increases across the board for all investments. Total actual gain during March was $13,143 as illustrated in the report below.

As stated multiple times throughout the lessons and tutorials, high quality stocks have less risk and thus react remarkably well when the market goes down and recover quickly upon market rebound. Furthermore, high quality stocks provide many opportunities to earn good rewards if properly purchased at less than intrinsic value and sold upon market price recovery. Here is the Value Investment Fund’s status report for the end of March 2021.

Value Investment Fund Status Week 22 – A Fair Return For The Week

A Fair Return

Anytime the value investment fund improves more than 1% during a calendar week, it is a fair return. This past week, the Value Investment Fund grew 2.2% far outpacing all the major indices in the market.

The fund is well ahead of schedule and will surpass 48% return for fiscal year 2021; it is conceivable that it may hit 55% depending on second quarter results for the investments in the REITs Pool. It is currently at 43.6% through the first 22 weeks. All of the respective investments on are on hold waiting for them to work their way to their target sales price. During this past week, the investment fund sold PUTs on Norfolk Southern netting $335.07. Total realized earnings to date are just slightly greater than 15.9%. Unrealized gains exist primarily in the REITs Pool. Compare the purchase price, current market price, market peak price for each of the respective REIT investments.

Sold 104.712 PUTs on Norfolk Southern Railroad

Norfolk Southern Railroad

Within the railways pool of investments for the Club’s Value Investment Fund, Norfolk Southern Railroad is considered one of the better investments of the six existing railroads in the pool (soon to be five with the merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern). It is a highly stable company and rarely performs poorly, either financially or via key performance indicators. Thus, the sale of PUTs on Norfolk Southern Corporation are a safe and relatively low risk options investment.

A PUT is the sale of an insurance policy to an existing holder of stock. The idea is that IF the market price for the stock should suddenly depress to a particular price, ‘Strike Price’, the current holder of the stock can force the seller of the PUT to buy the stock from the current owner of the PUT at that strike price. In effect, the PUT acts as a floor price for the stockholder.

Value Investment Fund – Status on February 28, 2021

Value Investment Fund

The Club’s Value Investment Fund leaped forward during February 2021. The Fund grew 11.31% driven by increases across the board for all investments. Total actual gain was $13,207.07 as illustrated in report below.

As stated multiple times throughout the lessons and tutorials, high quality stocks have less risk and thus react remarkably well when the market goes down and recover quickly upon market rebound. Furthermore, high quality stocks provide many opportunities to earn good rewards if properly purchased less than intrinsic value and sold upon market price recovery.

Value Investment Fund Status Week 16 – Another Good Week

Value Investing

Another good week, the REIT pool of investments improved another $4,094 driven by Equity Residential and UDR’s actual results from the 4th quarter of 2020. Although the market responded positively to the results, the facilitator believes that UDR didn’t perform as well as Equity or Essex during the last quarter. This requires an in-depth review of UDR once their full annual report is released later this month. It might be time to dispose of this investment as the author feels that its growth to a higher value will be too slow to justify a continued hold with this investment. That report will be posted to this website prior to month’s end. For now, all three holdings are doing well with an $18,266 unrealized gain in just over three months off a $70,000 investment. This is a 26% actual gain, an approximate annual return of around 82%. 

Value Investment Fund Status Week 15 – Amazing Movement Forward

What a great week! Essex Property Trust reported their 4th quarter results and as expected, the stock’s market priced jumped almost $20 higher per share. The interesting part is that it wasn’t as if Essex reported great results; actually, their financial profits were in line with the third quarter profit. The market was holding back on amping this stock because it doesn’t know how to evaluate pricing equity based apartment complex real estate investment trusts. Per the article written several weeks ago, ‘Intrinsic Value of Essex Property Trust’, Essex’s intrinsic value is approximately $255 and a reasonable market value for this stock is around $285 to $290 per share. 

On Friday the 5th of February, 2021, the stock closed at $258.10. Thus, the market price is approximately the intrinsic value of the company on a per share basis. If the first quarter results mirror the 4th quarter performance, the stock price will surpass $270 and well on its way towards the target sell price. It may take two more quarters to acheive this reasonable market recovery price. In the interim, this single stock with several thousand dollars of unrealized value will keep the investment fund on target for the fiscal year goal of more than 30% return. The other two REITs report this week; if their results are similar to Essex’s, then the Fund’s balance will have a solid foundation for the next six months.

The historical high for Essex Property Trust is $331.30 back in October of 2019.

Calculating Intrinsic Value for Bank Stocks

Intrinsic Value of Bank Stocks

Financial institutions, including banks, are highly regulated, extremely leveraged, and susceptible to interest rate fluctuations. Due to this unique exposure, calculating intrinsic value for bank stocks requires modification of the most popular valuation models. There are about five widely accepted intrinsic valuation models used with determining the core price for stock of most companies. Novice or lazy investors rely heavily on these so-called textbook models to calculate intrinsic value as the baseline for buying stock. Sophisticated investors will modify popular models to create a customized formula for each respective industry. It requires some reasoning and reasonable assumptions to design and implement a model for any industry. This article goes into detail about designing and executing an intrinsic valuation model for banks.

To cover the thought process of creating this banking model, it is first explained how banks are in their own corner of the business world. These certain business attributes are unusual and therefore demand modification to any intrinsic calculation model. Secondly, compliance regulation further complicates calculating value. In some situations, the government penalizes banks by restricting their ability to conduct business which then impacts earnings. Since most valuation models are oriented around earnings, compliance in banking demands changes to the intrinsic formula. A third dynamic with banks is the leverage issue. Most stock price valuation models assume the respective company is at least mildly leveraged. Banks are not not mildly leveraged in comparison to other industries. A bank’s asset side of the balance sheet is customarily more than 85% weighted with loans and other earning assets. Therefore, the respective intrinsic value formulas must take this into consideration. Finally, banks and other financial institutions are susceptible to net interest margins which is tied to the portfolio’s risk factors (types of loans) and the sourcing of capital to finance these earning assets. Thus, the formula for intrinsic value must adapt to this interest spread between what is earned and what is paid out for use of money.

This article goes into great detail about how banks make a profit. The intrinsic value formula is designed around this unique business model. The final section goes through an eight step procedure to determine intrinsic value of bank stock. This article is for members only of this site’s Value Investment Club. It uses Wells Fargo as its sample and sets Wells Fargo’s intrinsic value point as of February 2021. For those of you desiring to read the entire article, you must join as a member; click on the Value Investing tab above and select Membership to read about the program and join the Club.

Value Investment Fund – Status on January 31, 2021

Value Investment Fund

The symbolism of the stock market are the bear and the bull. There is a third, the sloth for slow change. January is best stated as a sloth month. The stock market as a whole retracted 2%; but, the Value Investment Fund grew a meager .4% from $116,231 on December 31, 2020 to $116,727 on January 31, 2021.

As stated multiple times throughout the lessons and tutorials, high quality stocks have less risk and thus react remarkably well when the market goes down and recover quickly upon market rebound. Furthermore, high quality stocks provide many opportunities to earn good rewards if properly purchased at intrinsic value and sold upon market price recovery.

On December 31, 2020, the Investment Fund’s balance was $116,231. During the month of January 2021, the DOW Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.04% from 30,606 to 29,983. This club’s fund, increased a meager .4%. The difference is directly associated with the REIT pool. That pool’s balance on December 31st was $67,775 and it now stands at $79,582 including an additional $10,000 of basis tied to a second tranche purchase of Essex Property Trust (see the article for Essex’s intrinsic value calcultion).