Yesterday, May 3rd, 2022, the Value Investment Fund sold 246.9135 PUTs on JPMorgan Chase & Co. with a strike price of $80 per share. These PUTs expire on June 16, 2023 (13 months). The Fund sold the PUTs for $2.76 each and netted $1.76 each after fees. Total realized income was $434.57 (246.9135 * $1.76/ea).
The Value Investment Fund has three pools of investment. The banking pool has six different high quality banks as options for value investing.
The Club’s Value Investment Fund leaped forward during February 2021. The Fund grew 11.31% driven by increases across the board for all investments. Total actual gain was $13,207.07 as illustrated in report below.
As stated multiple times throughout the lessons and tutorials, high quality stocks have less risk and thus react remarkably well when the market goes down and recover quickly upon market rebound. Furthermore, high quality stocks provide many opportunities to earn good rewards if properly purchased less than intrinsic value and sold upon market price recovery.
Three good weeks in a row, the Club’s Value Investment Fund increased another 3.6% during this past week. That’s three weeks in a row with at least 3% improvement over the prior week. This past week’s growth was driven by the banking pool of investments, specifically the gain from Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo’s total balance increased $3,659.42. As expected, Wells Fargo’s is currently being sold in the market for less than intrinsic value estimated at $38 per share. As time passes, with each week, Wells Fargo gets closer to having their Federal Reserve cap lifted. Once this cap is lifted, the company can expand their respective earnings assets portfolio and greatly improve their net interest revenue which then drives the bottom line. The cap is expected to be lifted sometime in the first half of 2022. Between now and then, Wells Fargo’s stock price should improve into the mid $40 range as buyers anticipate lifting of the cap. In the interim, the Fund will continue to maintain patience as it waits for time to pass.
During the past week, the Fund sold PUTs on Union Pacific earning $2,009, improving realized gains to $15,616. Overall, the Fund is in a positive 33.7% improvement over its starting basis of $100,000. The Fund is currently about 1/3 of the way into the fiscal year. All of the current holdings are long-term holdings and the Fund only expects them to improve marginally between now and the end of the fiscal year. The facilitator still believes the Fund’s total return will approximate 44% by fiscal year end.
Financial institutions, including banks, are highly regulated, extremely leveraged, and susceptible to interest rate fluctuations. Due to this unique exposure, calculating intrinsic value for bank stocks requires modification of the most popular valuation models. There are about five widely accepted intrinsic valuation models used with determining the core price for stock of most companies. Novice or lazy investors rely heavily on these so-called textbook models to calculate intrinsic value as the baseline for buying stock. Sophisticated investors will modify popular models to create a customized formula for each respective industry. It requires some reasoning and reasonable assumptions to design and implement a model for any industry. This article goes into detail about designing and executing an intrinsic valuation model for banks.
To cover the thought process of creating this banking model, it is first explained how banks are in their own corner of the business world. These certain business attributes are unusual and therefore demand modification to any intrinsic calculation model. Secondly, compliance regulation further complicates calculating value. In some situations, the government penalizes banks by restricting their ability to conduct business which then impacts earnings. Since most valuation models are oriented around earnings, compliance in banking demands changes to the intrinsic formula. A third dynamic with banks is the leverage issue. Most stock price valuation models assume the respective company is at least mildly leveraged. Banks are not not mildly leveraged in comparison to other industries. A bank’s asset side of the balance sheet is customarily more than 85% weighted with loans and other earning assets. Therefore, the respective intrinsic value formulas must take this into consideration. Finally, banks and other financial institutions are susceptible to net interest margins which is tied to the portfolio’s risk factors (types of loans) and the sourcing of capital to finance these earning assets. Thus, the formula for intrinsic value must adapt to this interest spread between what is earned and what is paid out for use of money.
This article goes into great detail about how banks make a profit. The intrinsic value formula is designed around this unique business model. The final section goes through an eight step procedure to determine intrinsic value of bank stock. This article is for members only of this site’s Value Investment Club. It uses Wells Fargo as its sample and sets Wells Fargo’s intrinsic value point as of February 2021. For those of you desiring to read the entire article, you must join as a member; click on the Value Investing tab above and select Membership to read about the program and join the Club.
The Value Investment Fund purchased a second tranche of Wells Fargo Bank shares today, January 14, 2021, at 12:45 PM. Total investment is $20,000. The price per share including a $1 per share transaction fee is $35.78.
This particular investment is a part of the Banking Pool for the Club’s Investment Fund. The stock is currently trading just slightly higher than the traditional book value for Wells Fargo. The preset sell price is $53 per share.
Today, Comerica’s stock price hit the sell point in accordance with the buy/sell model for Comerica Bank. At the market’s opening this morning, January 14, 2021, the stock quickly jumped past $65 per share. The order to sell is set at $65 per share. Total proceeds net of $1 per share transaction fees was $23,677.40. The cost basis including a $1 per share transaction fee from December 11, 2020 was $20,000. Therefore, the gain on the sale equals $3,677.40. Time of holding was 35 days; thus, the return on the investment is a whopping 18.38%.
The value investment fund’s banking pool includes Comerica Bank. Based on the investment’s buy/sell model, this morning prior to opening, an order for 369.9593 shares at $53.06 was entered. Including the cost of $1.00 per share, total investment is $20,000. The preset sell price is now set at $65.00. Based on historical information, it is believed that this target price can be achieved by the end of February 2021.