Railroad Fund – Update 02/26/2020 Coronavirus Impact

The last two days have been expensive. Norfolk Southern’s value has dropped to $190.07. I currently have 49.060606 shares in the fund bought at two different prices two days ago. My total investment is $10,000. Thus, the current market value is $9,324.95 meaning the fund has decreased $675.05 in two days!

Many of you are wondering what I am going to do now, since this is a sudden drop in value. The answer is “Nothing“. Value investing means having faith in the buy/sell points. I’m going to wait now for the stock to come back up. I would imagine the market will recover once this coronavirus scare passes. Once the weather warms up, the flu bug generally goes away; thus, come May/June this virus will die a natural death and the market will recover. As always, patience is important here.

Still, overall the fund’s market value is the stock price at close of business today $9,324.95 plus cash in the bank of $1,304.65 for a total of $10,629.60.

I noticed that Union Pacific (I consider Union Pacific the highest quality stock within the six Class I railways) is now at $165.00 even. A 17% drop is the requirement for me to buy; see my article: Union Pacific – Buy/Sell Model. The prior high was on 01/24/2020 at 9:55 AM at $188.90. A 17% drop means the price would need to dip to $156.79 before I can purchase any stock. If this happens, I will use the excess cash of $1,304.65 to make a purchase. I will go one step further, if my Norfolk Southern increases in value back to my buy point of about $202 per share, I’ll sell half to buy Union Pacific at this extremely low price. As stated in several of my articles, the key is purchase quality stock at a good price. Union Pacific as of this month is the best quality stock of the existing six railroads to choose from. I am simply reducing my risk at no cost to the fund. It is unlikely Union will drop while Norfolk Southern increases; but at least I conveyed my thinking related to economic substitution and its value with reducing risk. ACT ON KNOWLEDGE.

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