Value Investing

Value investing is a systematic process of purchasing high quality, intrinsic backed stocks at depressed market prices. Using financial analytics, allow time for market price recovery and then proceed to reap gains from an investor’s patience.

Wendy’s – Intrinsic Value of Stock

Value Investing

Wendy’s is the second largest publicly traded informal eating-out (fast-food) hamburger chain. Its current market capitalization places it around $5 Billion. Therefore, it falls into the mid-cap arena of stocks. At the time of this article’s inception, November 2021, Wendy’s was trading on the NASDAQ at $23 per share. Its intrinsic value is a little less than half the market value and a value investor’s buy point is around $8 per share. The company does pay a small dividend. Current dividend yield is slightly less than 2%. Overall, the company is profitable but stagnant related to growth. Stated succinctly, Wendy’s is nowhere near worth a current market value of more than $20 per share. 

This company runs the industry financial model commonly used with other fast-food restaurant chains. It has three revenue and expense segments of operations. The first and core segment is the traditional corporate owned locations. Wendy’s has 361 company owned stores. As such, they have a traditional profit and loss calculation associated with this segment. A second segment and the real driving force of profit is the franchising arm of the company. There are 6,467 franchisees, with corporate owned stores, Wendy’s totals 6,828 restaurants. This segment is driven by the 4% franchise fee placed on all sales of the franchisees. Similar to McDonalds, the core source of profitability stems from the franchising aspect of operations. A third and not as profitable as franchising is the real estate arm. Just like McDonalds and other well managed restaurant chains, Wendy’s negotiates long-term leases of property in ideal locations and in turn negotiates beneficial long-term leases with franchisees to pay rent for the use of that land. The franchisee uses their capital to build the store, equip it and initiate operations at that site.

Shake Shack – Intrinsic Value of Stock

Shake Shack Intrinsic Value

One of the members of the informal eating out industry, fast-food restaurants, is Shake Shack. Shake Shack is one of the few fast-food restaurants that sells beer and wine at a limited number of its locations. The company is relatively young by any business standard opening its first restaurant back in 2001 and going public in 2014. Thus, the company does not qualify as a value investment opportunity but is used as a comparative tool in this site’s Value Investment Fund’s Fast-Food Restaurants’ Pool.

In general, Shake Shack’s market price is several times greater than the company’s intrinsic value. It is trading at this high price purely on conjecture that it will morph into the next McDonald’s. Based on its business plan, historical earnings, and capital raising capacity; it will take every bit of twenty (20) years to justify the current market price – trading at more than $70 per share (November 2021). No value investor in their right mind would spend $70 plus on hope. It is simply irresponsible.

Value Investment Fund – Status on September 30, 2021

Yes, during September the Value Investment Fund only held one position which was Wells Fargo. It only decreased in value a mere .6%. To make this even more interesting, during September, Wells Fargo was hit with two more fines from the agencies of the federal government totaling more than $300 Million and yet, Wells Fargo only decreased in value a pittance .6%. This is another example of how high quality investments, when purchased at good prices, reduce risk dramatically. Yes, there is an offset to this risk elimination design. An investor will never get rich quickly, i.e. in less than one year. High quality investments purchased at less than intrinsic value have very little volatility and as such can only generate good returns. Good returns are defined as greater than 20% per year on average. In most cases, the average annual returns will exceed 30% per year with about one or two years per economic cycle with meager returns in the five to ten percent range. 

Again, Value Investing is about earning good returns, year after year. It is not a get rich quick scheme; it is a thoughtful well laid out plan to improve one’s wealth over time.

Value Investment Fund – Status on August 31, 2021

Value Investment Fund

Although the Value Investment Fund continues to grow, opportunities wane. It has been smooth sailing so far mostly due to an economic downturn in 2020 driven by COVID. Opportunities still existed into late 2020 of which this Fund took advantage. Now I have to add more potential opportunities or growth will amble along. There does not appear to be any storm activity in the near future. The markets indices are all at their all-time highs; there are no negative outlooks from any authority and quite honestly, economic forecasts look robust. Without an economic wide storm, very few potential buys will exist. To counter this, the Fund must expand its selections of pools and the corresponding high quality companies in order to take advantage of an individual company or two falling out of favor with investors.

Sold Equity Residential for $83 per Share/Purchased at $52 per Share

Equity Residential

Throughout the last five months, over several different articles, the Fund stated that the goal for this particular investment within the REITs pool was to sell once the stock price hit $83 per share. On July 15, 2021 at 10:23 AM, the stock price hit $83 per share triggering the automatic sale of all 574.459 shares.

Total net receipts after deducting $1 per share for the transaction costs were $47,105.64 (574.459 * $82 net per share). Basis in this investment was $30,000 including the $1 transaction fee per share at purchase. Net earnings totaled $17,105.64.

Value Investment Fund – Status on June 30, 2021

Value Investment Fund

The Club’s Value Investment Fund glided along during June 2021. The Fund grew a meager .4% driven by the sale of Essex Property Trust on June 18, 2021. Total actual gain during June was $582 as illustrated in the report below. During this time period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased about one-tenth of a percent.

As stated multiple times throughout the lessons and tutorials, high quality stocks have less risk and thus, resist remarkably well when the market goes down or is stagnant and recover quickly upon market rebound. Furthermore, high quality stocks provide many opportunities to earn good rewards if properly purchased at less than intrinsic value and sold upon market price recovery. Here is the Value Investment Fund’s status report for the end of June 2021.

Sold Essex Property Trust – 74.07% Annual Return

Value Investment Fund

On June 18, 2021 at 2:56 PM, Essex’s share price dropped to $304 per share triggering a stop-loss order purchased a month earlier. This automatic sale of all 92.2638 shares netted $302 per share. The Value Investment Fund pays $1 per share for any transaction and also pays $1 per share for any option or market mechanism such as the stop-loss directive. Total adjusted sales revenue equals $27,863.67 ($302/Share X 92.2638 Shares). Basis in Essex Property Trust is $20,000 including the original purchase price plus the purchase transaction fee of $1 per share.

The Fund profited $7,863.67. The total holding period was 201 days. Thus, the actual return on the investment was 39.32%. The effective annual return equates to 71.4%.

Value Investment Fund – Status on May 31, 2021

Value Investment Fund

The Club’s Value Investment Fund continued to grow during May 2021. The Fund grew 3.35% driven by increases across the board for all investments. Total actual gain during May was $5,097 as illustrated in the report below.

As stated multiple times throughout the lessons and tutorials, high quality stocks have less risk and thus, resist remarkably well when the market goes down and recover quickly upon market rebound. Furthermore, high quality stocks provide many opportunities to earn good rewards if properly purchased at less than intrinsic value and sold upon market price recovery.

Value Investment Fund Status Week 29 – Just Gliding Along

Value Investment Fund

The Value Investment Fund continues to just glide along with only a .2% increase over the prior week. Although the DOW dropped 571 points, a mere .16%, the respective investments within the Fund improved. This again demonstrates the importance of only working with high quality companies and buying the investments with good margins of safety below intrinsic value reward value investors.

The facilitator recognizes a flaw within the program that impedes long-term continuous growth rates of more than 30% per year. The Fund lacks adequate diversity. In effect, there are not enough potential investments to provide opportunities when the market as a whole is performing so well as it is right now. Thus, over the next six months, the Fund will develop two new pools of potential investments. The Fund has already added the fast food industry with eight potential investments and is currently researching the fifth pool. The end goal is to have more than 30 potential investments providing opportunities.